Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,942,363$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,908,875.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,908,875.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110,514$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,080.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(108,080.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,325,482$ on 2020-06-07

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $97,178$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,370.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(97,370.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,877$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(658 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,826.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,826.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,626$ on 2020-06-07

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $117,103$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193,568.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 75.5)}}\) (asimptote \(193,568.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,699$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(334 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,077.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 70.8)}}\) (asimptote \(26,077.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,629$ on 2020-06-07

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,425$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,588.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 66.9)}}\) (asimptote \(19,588.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $393$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(37 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{382.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(382.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,814$ on 2020-06-07

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,600$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,174.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 62.0)}}\) (asimptote \(23,174.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $538$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(93.3 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{519.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 37.7)}}\) (asimptote \(519.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,055$ on 2020-06-07

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,327$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(139 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,786.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 72.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,786.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $258$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{371.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 61.3)}}\) (asimptote \(371.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,357$ on 2020-06-07

Guatemala

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,055$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(49.6 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,529.7}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 76.9)}}\) (asimptote \(13,529.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $252$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(0.434 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.2\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,542$ on 2020-06-07

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,015$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(85.6 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,067.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 62.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,067.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 64.5)}}\) (asimptote \(97.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,657$ on 2020-06-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Jamaica recovered 57%
Canada recovered 4%

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $598$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(81.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{570.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(570.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $183$ on 2020-06-07